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At last there are signs that the government is prepared to negotiate, but it will not be easy

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Zitamar News

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A week, they say, is a long time in politics. Last week, President Filipe Nyusi showed no interest in holding talks, much less negotiations, with opposition presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane amid the increasingly violent protests over the disputed election results. Meanwhile, Mondlane (who of course insists that he won the presidential election, contrary to official results) was asserting as recently as Tuesday that he would be inaugurated as president of Mozambique next month.

Both sides are now showing signs of softening their positions. In a meeting with media editors this morning at his office, Nyusi indicated that he would be prepared to enter into meaningful talks with Mondlane, and revealed that there had been ongoing contact between the government or ruling party Frelimo, or both, and the Mondlane camp. What those talks could lead to he did not say. But Zitamar News understands that Daniel Chapo, Frelimo’s presidential candidate and the official president-elect, and his supporters would be prepared to talk about setting up a government of national unity, something that Mondlane has also signalled his support for, according to an informed source.

What has changed? Sources say that Nyusi was concerned about how Frelimo would treat him if he had to give up his positions in Frelimo as part of a bigger political compromise, and whether he and his family would face reprisals. He has apparently been reassured about this, judging by his openness to talks.

There are encouraging signs, then, that we could finally see both sides sitting down to talk. The latest phase of demonstrations ended yesterday, which gives a breathing space for dialogue to happen without more violence or disruption to daily life and work.

Still, the path to a negotiated political solution to the crisis will not be easy. Mondlane has already promised his supporters that he will be president. If he goes back on this promise, for example by joining a government of national unity but not at the top of it, they may react angrily. The more militant protesters have already shown what they are capable of by burning police stations and Frelimo offices all over the country. For its part, Frelimo enjoys a highly privileged and indeed abusive position as the ruling political party in Mozambique for 49 years. Any viable political settlement will have to be carefully arranged so as not to threaten the interests of the party and its most powerful figures too much. The details of any deal will probably require painstaking negotiation, and the talks could break down.

But Frelimo is nothing if not a centralised party, and once the party president has made a decision, the party usually follows. Both Nyusi and other influential party personalities seem to have now accepted that dialogue is the way to go. The hardliners in the party will disagree, but they cannot stop dialogue by themselves; they would need the support of the security forces, who look like they will remain loyal to the Mozambican president and the constitution.