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Despite adjustments made for the undercount, the census results presented numerous anomalies, making them more estimations than exact counts.

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Sizwe sama Yende

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The University of Cape Town (UCT) has called for extreme caution in the use of the 2022 Census data due to a highest undercount ever measured.

UCT demographers – Professor Tom Moultrie and Emeritus Professor Rob Dorrington – say there is an urgent need for an alternative set of population estimates by age, sex, and population group.

These alternative estimates, they say, are crucial to describe the South African population and forming a reliable basis for resource allocation and planning.

Census 2022 is the latest data the newly-formed government of national unity will have to rely on to plan and budget for service delivery. However, collection of data was affected by unprecedented challenges, including riots, ongoing Covid-19 lockdowns and climate change issues such as flooding in some parts of the country.

The census was also affected by delays in recruiting and training field staff and extended data collection periods, particularly in the Western Cape, where enumeration concluded nearly four months after the census date.

The Census 2022 results showed that:

·      The population of South Africa was 62 million in 2022, increasing from 51.7 million in 2011 – representing an average annual growth rate of 1. 8% between the two periods, which is the largest since 1996;

·      Gauteng remained the province with the highest population (15 million), while Northern Cape has the smallest population at 1.3 million;

·      About 56% of the country’s population lives in three provinces, namely Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape. The Western Cape has moved from being the 5th-largest province in terms of population size in 1996 to being the 3rd largest in 2022;

·      Black Africans remain the dominant population group (81.4%), followed by coloureds at 8.2%, whites at 7.3% and Indians/Asians at 2.7%. There has been a steady decline in the proportion of the white population, from 11% in 1996 to 7.3% in 2022.

The demographers said that despite adjustments made for the undercount, the census results presented numerous anomalies, making them more estimations than exact counts.

“These anomalies challenge not only the accuracy of the census data but also their utility for critical functions such as resource allocation, investment planning, and public policy decision-making, potentially leading to the misallocation of resources and ineffective policies.”

Statistics SA’s post-enumeration survey, a small-scale survey conducted soon after the census date that seeks to identify who was and was not counted in the census, estimated that the census undercounted the population by 31% when the results were released on October 10 2023.

Stats SA found that the national population, after adjusting for the undercount, may be overestimated by about one-million people or nearly two per cent.

Other findings were that:

·       Significant overestimates exist in the Indian/Asian and white population groups, with undercounts exceeding 60%.

·       A marked undercount of children aged five remains, even after adjustments.

·        Inconsistencies are found in national and provincial population estimates by age, sex, and population group.

·        Discrepancies exist in population estimates at district and municipal levels compared to other data sources, including mid-year population estimates and voter rolls from local government elections.

·       Anomalies in adjustments for the undercount imply a false sense of certainty in the final population estimates.

“We conclude that these difficulties render the census data collected unfit for purpose. We recommend that the results be used with extreme caution in planning and resource allocation until thorough investigations are made possible by Statistics South Africa,” Moultrie said.

Moultrie said that given the improbability of another census before 2031, there was an urgent need for an alternative set of population estimates by age, sex, and population group.

“These alternative estimates are crucial for more accurately describing the South African population and forming a reliable basis for resource allocation and planning,” Moultrie concluded.