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Our father’s home is burning. When your father’s house is on fire, you don’t hesitate. You take the bucket and join all others to douse the flames. We can talk later about what caused the problems. - Tokyo Sexwale

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Sizwe sama Yende

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The ANC would win the elections by 42.9% if voting took place on May 8, according to results of daily a survey conducted by the Social Research Foundation (SRF).

The SRF’s Tracking Poll indicates that the DA would come second, winning 21.6% of the votes if the voter turnout was 66%. Following the DA would be the MK Party at 11.4%, EFF (8.8%) and IFP at 3.5% and all other parties combined at 11.8%.

SRF’s poll confirms that the ANC will still win the general elections on May 29 but with a much more reduced margin – forcing it to seek coalition partners to govern the country.

The ANC has lately pleaded with its former leaders that include erstwhile president, Thabo Mbeki, Tokyo Sexwale and Mathews Phosa to avail themselves in the hustings.

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Self-effacing former deputy president, David DD Mabuza, also went public for the first time since stepping down from public office in 2022 and joined the party’s campaign in Gauteng.

“Our father’s home is burning. When your father’s house is on fire, you don’t hesitate. You take the bucket and join all others to douse the flames. We can talk later about what caused the problems,” Sexwale said as he began the campaign trail in Katlehong on Tuesday. Soccer legend, Doctor Khumalo, also joined Sexwale on the campaign trail.

This poll confirms that the country will be governed by a coalition after May 29. It also shows how much of a dent the fledgling MK Party is causing to both the ANC and the EFF. The MK will dislodge the EFF as the third largest party.

The MK Party is itself embroiled in a bitter jostle for leadership. The internecine battle has pitted party commander, Jabulani Khumalo, against its president, Jacob Zuma.

Khumalo and other leaders were fired after being labelled as rogue. Khumalo has lately written to the IEC asking it to remove Zuma as party leader. This seems to be a losing battle as the IEC has said that only the party’s leader could bring such a request and that leader, according to their records, was Zuma.

SRF said that the baseline of the tracking poll was a survey of 1 835 demographically and geographically representative registered voters.

Every day 200 new participants are surveyed and the 200 oldest participants are removed from the survey.

“By doing so this creates a daily moving average. The data in the report is not a forecast of the May 29 election result, but rather a snapshot of the daily current position. Readers must be aware that this position is very different from that of just 12 months ago and that equally significant changes to the position may play out during the lead up to the election.”

Even if the voter turnout was 56%, there would not be much difference. The ANC would win by 45% and the DA follow with 24%.