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The magnitude and duration of global temperature overshoot above 1.5°C must be minimised Tipping points manifest in warm-water coral reefs experiencing unprecedented dieback, dieback of the Amazon rainforest and melting polar ice sheets Immediate, unprecedented action from leaders at COP30 and policymakers worldwide is demanded

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Sizwe sama Yende

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Scientists across the globe have warned that global warming has pushed the world to the first of many Earth system tipping points that threaten to cause catastrophic harm unless humanity takes urgent action.

According to the Global Tipping Points report released on October 13, global warming will soon exceed 1.5 °C – putting billions of people at various climate change risks.

Global Tipping Point was cobbled together by 160 authors from 23 countries and 87 institutions.

These tipping points manifest in warm-water coral reefs having crossed their thermal tipping point and experiencing unprecedented dieback, dieback of the Amazon rainforest and melting polar ice sheets.

Coral reefs, also known as the rainforests of the sea, house over a million species, including over 4 000 types of fish. They are a food source for marine life and also a vital food source for people in coastal areas and islands.

The point that their dieback threatens the livelihoods of millions of people that depend on them need not be belaboured.

Melting polar ice sheets cause rising sea levels, which in turn cause flooding and coastal erosion. Wildlife such as polar bears and seals are at risk as they are depended on the ice habitat.

The report gives delegates due to meet in Belem, Brazil, for COP30 in November this year a lot to chew on. The researchers are working with Brazil’s COP30 Presidency to ensure that tipping points are on the agenda at the summit.

Chief Scientific Advisor at WWF-UK and co-author of the report, Dr Mike Barrett, said: “As we head into the COP30 climate negotiations it’s vital that all parties grasp the gravity of the situation and the extent of what we all stand to lose if the climate and nature crises are not addressed. The solutions are within our reach.”

Barret added that countries must show political bravery and leadership to work together.

The scientists say that the magnitude and duration of global temperature overshoot above 1.5°C must be minimised. To achieve that, they say, global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions must be halved by 2030  and then reach net zero by 2050.

“This requires an unprecedented acceleration in decarbonisation, rapid mitigation of methane emissions and other short-lived climate pollutants and fast scaling of sustainable carbon removal from the atmosphere.”

The report also calls for urgency as the window for preventing damaging tipping points is rapidly closing. It warns that the current Nationally Determined Contributions and binding long-term or net zero targets are not enough.

 “They still commit the world to ongoing global warming that will likely exceed 2°C before 2100. This demands immediate, unprecedented action from leaders at COP30 and policymakers worldwide,” say the scientists.

Not all is lost, however, they say.

“To achieve such a radical acceleration of action requires triggering positive tipping points that generate self-amplifying change in technologies and behaviours, towards zero emissions.”

The scientists note that in the two years since the first Global Tipping Points Report was published, there has been a radical acceleration in the uptake of solar power and electric vehicles worldwide.

On the other hand, there has also been a recent spate of backsliding on commitments in some nations and sectors, including finance.

“Nevertheless, a minority can still tip the majority when they have self-amplifying feedback on their side. This is evident in clean technology adoption. Solar PV panels have dropped in price by a quarter for each doubling of their installed capacity,” they say.

“Batteries have improved in quality and plummeted in price the more that are deployed. This encourages further adoption. The spread of climate

litigation cases and nature positive initiatives is also self-amplifying. The more people undertaking them the more they influence others to act.”

The scientists say that reinforcement of feedback between civil society and policymakers is also critical to amplifying positive change.

“Only with a combination of decisive policy and civil society action can

the world turn from facing existential climate tipping point risks to seizing positive tipping point opportunities,” they say.

Professor of Sustainability Transformations and Futures at the Global Change Institute at Wits University, Laura Pereira, said that the climate crisis could not be addresses by perpetuating the same systems of injustice and oppression that caused it in the first place.

“The findings of this report require a strong reckoning with our current social and economic systems that have led to this moment of potentially imminent cascading crises across our planet and societies, whilst offering some of the transformative solutions that we need to undertake in order to enable a more just and sustainable future for all,” Pereira said.

“We need to look to deeper, more equitable solutions that will allow a more equitable and sustainable future for people and planet.”

Professor Tim Lenton, from the Global Systems Institute  at the University of Exeter, said: “We are rapidly approaching multiple Earth system tipping points that could transform our world, with devastating consequences for people and nature. This demands immediate, unprecedented action from leaders at COP30 and policymakers worldwide.”